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03/09/2010 - Metairie, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Orleans Saints agreed to terms with cornerback Leigh Torrence on a one-year contract Tuesday.
Torrence spent the past two years with New Orleans, appearing in 12 total games. He had four tackles and a half-sack on defense and registered five special teams stops in 2009 before landing on season-ending injured reserve with a shoulder injury.
In parts of four seasons with New Orleans and Washington, Torrence has 55 tackles, 1 1/2 sacks and 42 special teams stops in 47 games.
<< Vikings re-sign CB Sapp
Eden Prairie, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Vikings re-signed cornerback
Benny Sapp on Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the Minneapolis Star Tribune
reports it being a two-year contract worth $4.2 million,
<< Rangers opens 13-point lead on Celtic
Kilmarnock, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steven Whittaker and Kenny Miller each
scored and Rangers beat Kilmarnock 2-0 on Tuesday to move 13 points clear atop
Scotland's Premier League.
Whittaker scored the opener at Rugby Park in the 55th an
<< Jerome leads Birmingham over Portsmouth
Portsmouth, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cameron Jerome scored two goals in the
first half and promoted Birmingham defeated Portsmouth 2-1 on Tuesday to move
within six points of fourth place in England's Premier League.
Birmingham won for t
<< Chiefs land RB Thomas Jones
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Chiefs announced the
signing of free agent running back Thomas Jones on Tuesday.
Terms of the signing were not released.
Jones was released after three productive seasons with t
FDU removes interim tag from Vetrone >>
Teaneck, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fairleigh Dickinson has removed the interim tag
from Greg Vetrone and has named him the permanent men's basketball coach.
Vetrone was given the job on an interim basis for last season and led the team
to a 10-
Falcons sign CB Grimes >>
Flowery Branch, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons have re-signed
cornerback Brent Grimes.
Grimes led the team with six interceptions in 2009, had 13 passes defensed and
compiled 67 tackles, 58 of those solo, in 16 games.
Ori
Bears release RB Jones >>
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears released running back
Kevin Jones on Tuesday.
Jones, who missed all of 2009 with a serious ankle injury, signed with the
bears in 2008 and rushed for 109 yards on 34 carries
Big East champs again: UConn women pull away from WVU >>
Hartford, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kalana Greene scored 15 points and pulled down
12 rebounds, and top-ranked Connecticut captured the Big East Tournament title
and stretched its winning streak to a record 72 games with a 60-32 triumph
over No
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Terrell Owens will address the media at a 3:15 p.m. ET news conference outside the Cowboys' practice facility after an internal police report indicated he tried to kill himself by overdosing on prescription pain medication, even putting two more pills into his mouth after a friend intervened.
The Dallas police report said Owens was asked by rescue workers "if he was attempting to harm himself, at which time [he] stated, 'Yes.'"
Owens left the hospital late Wednesday morning, giving reporters a "thumbs up" but making no comment as he was driven away in an SUV.
Michael Irvin said that Owens denied he attempted suicide and said he was rushed to the hospital as a result of an adverse reaction to medication. And a source close to Owens told Michael A. Smith that Owens wasn't attempting suicide.
NFL Network analyst Deion Sanders said he spoke with Owens shortly before his release from the hospital and that Owens was in good spirits.
"The fact that it has been reported a suicide attempt, he's laughed at that notion. It was a case that medication that was taken wasn't accepted well in his system with the other vitamins he's on," Sanders said.
The series of events began a little before 8 p.m. Tuesday.
Owens' publicist, Kim Etheredge, said she was at Owens' home when he took pain medicine for his broken right hand. Concerned by how he began acting, Etheredge said in various interviews Wednesday with Dallas-area media that she called 911. Owens was taken to a hospital, with Etheredge saying it was an allergic reaction to the medicine.
But early Wednesday, several media outlets received a police report -- that had yet to be released by the authorities -- saying Owens had attempted suicide by overdosing on the painkillers, even putting two more pills into his mouth after an unidentified friend intervened.
The police document, first reported by WFAA-TV, said Owens was asked by rescue workers "if he was attempting to harm himself, at which time [he] stated, 'Yes.'"
When officially released by police, about half the document was blacked out, including the phrases "attempting suicide by prescription pain medication" and "a drug overdose," as well as the details of Owens having two pills pried from his mouth and Owens saying "Yes" when asked if he intended to harm himself.
Etheredge, who said she was the friend cited in the police document, told Dallas-area media Wednesday that the police got the story wrong.
The tape of the 911 call could help clear things up. The Associated Press filed a request under the Freedom of Information Act to get its contents, but fire department officials said it would not be available before late Wednesday.
The police report said the 32-year-old Owens told his friend "that he was depressed." Details of the police report were first reported by WFAA-TV.
The friend, who is not identified in the report, "noticed that [his] prescription pain medication was empty and observed [Owens] putting two pills in his mouth," the police report said.
Using her fingers, the friend attempted to pry them out of Owens' mouth. Owens told police he had taken only five of the 40 pain pills in the bottle he'd emptied before the incident.
Etheredge told the Star-Telegram that Owens was "fine."
Etheredge said she called 911 because Owens was groggy and lethargic. After taking some supplements "it kicked in a reaction" with the painkillers, she told the Star-Telegram.
"Here's a person whose body is so clean, it really had a negative reaction to the medication and supplements he was taking," Etheridge told The Morning News. "Thank goodness someone was there to call an ambulance."
Police Lt. Rick Watson said he could only confirm that paramedics called police to say they were taking Owens to the hospital. He said no more details would come from the police because no laws were broken.
It is not a crime in Texas for a person to attempt suicide.
"This is a high-profile person. We looked into it and we determined it is not a criminal offense," Watson said. "This a medical type of situation that occurred."
Watson and fire department spokesman Joel Lavender cited privacy laws for the lack of information they could provide. Lavender said more details could come from the 911 call. The Associated Press filed a request under the Freedom of Information Act to get the contents of the call.
"Let's just look at the tape, review the tape," Lavender said. "I'll give you an honest answer once I know something."
At the police news conference, Watson released a version of the police narrative with certain sections blacked out. The full report was obtained by several news outlets and reported first by WFAA. The AP received the full version from WFAA.
According to the police report, Dallas Fire and Rescue was called regarding someone "attempting suicide by prescription pain medication." Officers arrived to find Owens being stabilized by ambulance workers, who then took him to Baylor University Medical Center.
Owens was hospitalized late Tuesday because of what his publicist said was an allergic reaction to pain medicine he was taking for a broken hand. Doctors reportedly tried to induce vomiting.
Owens, one of the league's top receivers during his 11-year NFL career, is best known for wild stunts on the field and other publicity-seeking antics off it.
When the Cowboys signed him to a $25 million, three-year deal in March, they said their background checks indicated no red flags. In fact, team consultant Calvin Hill -- who mostly deals with troubled players -- said during training camp that his department was not involved with Owens because he didn't have a history of those kinds of problems.
He missed most of training camp, and three of four preseason games, because of a hamstring injury. He was late for work during his recovery and was fined for it, but Owens laughed it off, saying he overslept. He said it had happened before, though not with Dallas, and would probably happen again.
Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger during a game a week ago Sunday. The next day, doctors screwed in a plate so the bone could heal without fear of further damage. Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said last week that the pain medicine made Owens ill.
Owens had not practiced since the injury, but because Dallas had a bye this past weekend he did not miss a game. He was expected to practice Wednesday, and Parcells had said there was a chance Owens could play Sunday against Tennessee.
Owens had been especially looking forward to the Cowboys' game after that -- Oct. 8, in Philadelphia, against the team that dumped him midway through last season only months after he helped them nearly win the Super Bowl.
Owens was seen laughing and joking on the practice field Tuesday morning. He chatted briefly with reporters in the locker room in the afternoon and seemed fine. A 2-inch scar on the top of his hand was puffy but not wrapped, and he said the swelling was doing down.
While in the locker room, he took a pill from a white paper bag and looked at another medicine bottle that was in the bag. He also called a business partner about a towel-wrap venture they're starting and joked to TV cameras that he wasn't talking until Wednesday and it was only Tuesday.
"My little boy knows better than that," he said, laughing, as he plopped onto a sofa in the middle of the locker room.
Also Tuesday, Owens was involved in launching a national campaign for the National Alliance to End Abuse, an organization aimed at helping at-risk youngsters. He appeared at a high school Tuesday morning and was scheduled to visit others but had to cancel because of changes in the team's practice schedule.
Owens has played two games for the Cowboys, catching nine passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. For updated football betting lines and Dallas Cowboy Superbowl odds visit online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
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