Belmont Stakes - Bet on one of the "Dudes"
Horseracing Betting Lines
06/04/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Zito's Ice Box is the 3-1 morning line favorite for this Saturday's Belmont Stakes, but his come-from-the-clouds style might not be well-suited to the 1 1/2-mile race.
Only one horse since 1998 has won the third leg of the Triple Crown after racing last or next-to-last through the first quarter-mile. That was Jazil back in 2006 and the only reason he was able to close from far back was due to the insanely fast early fractions of 23 and 47 1/5 set by Bob and John. It's highly doubtful this year's field will run anywhere near those numbers.
A few of the other top choices - Fly Down, Stately Victor, Make Music for Me and Stay Put - also come from off-the-pace so they'll have to alter their running style to suit the distance as well or be caught 10 lengths behind the pacesetters through slow internal fractions.
Two horses that should be close to the pace, if not first and second, are First Dude and Game On Dude. The last time the two "dudes" met they finished out of the money in the Florida Derby. The former ran fifth while the latter ended up seventh.
First Dude has won only one race in his career, but he was extremely game in defeat vs. Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness. Racing on the lead for the first time in seven lifetime starts, the son of Stephen Got Even more than held his own battling back on the rail to hold off Jackson Bend for the place spot.
The key question for First Dude is how the colt will respond after that gut- wrenching performance three weeks ago. Keep in mind this will be his fifth, two-turn race in 3 1/2 months.
Game On Dude showed promise this winter at Gulfstream Park finishing second in his debut and then breaking his maiden by three lengths next time out. His connections thought so much of that effort they sent him right into the Grade I Florida Derby. It was a case of "too much too soon" as Ice Box crushed him by over 10 lengths. The horse was then sold and sent to Bob Baffert's barn
The Kentucky-bred's first appearance for Baffert came in the Derby Trial, a race he failed miserably, getting beat by almost 20 lengths. However, his poor performance was partly due to the sloppy race conditions.
Baffert then brought the recently gelded three-year-old to Texas for the Lone Star Derby and the results were just what the doctor ordered. Wearing blinkers for the first time, Game On Dude prevailed by almost five lengths with Martin Garcia replacing Robby Albarado in the irons. (One week later, Garcia won the Preakness with Lookin At Lucky.)
After the race, Baffert sent Game On Dude to California and the horse responded with three solid workouts. The son of Awesome Again posted a bullet 1:12 2/5 six-furlong work on May 18, and then put forth a seven-furlong trek in 1:26 3/5 seven days later. (Sangaree, who ran second to Rail Trip in the Mervyn Leroy Handicap, also worked seven furlongs that day finishing up a tick slower in 1:26 4/5.)
In his last work before the Belmont Stakes, Game On Dude fired off another six-furlong 1:12 2/5 bullet, this time from the gate at Santa Anita.
Baffert usually doesn't send horses to New York unless he's confident in their abilities so look for Game On Dude to more than hold his own in the "Test of Champions."
Of the two "Dudes," the one to follow is Game On Dude, especially since it's likely he'll go off at 10-1 or higher. The only question is his ability to get the distance, but that could be said about the other 11 horses in the starting gate.
THE TWO FAVORITES MUST BE RESPECTED
Ice Box has to be held in high esteem after his last two efforts - the monstrous second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby as well as the win in the Florida Derby. He posted a four-furlong bullet workout prior to both races and the son of Pulpit did so again last week at the Saratoga training track. The 1 1/2-miles will not be a problem, but the pace of the race, as mentioned earlier, could work to his disadvantage.
Don't forget, he closed from 19th to finish second in the Kentucky Derby primarily due to the insane early fractions set by Conveyance and Sidney's Candy. That duo reeled off 22 3/5, 46 and 1:10 2/5 splits, and the two horses that were last and next-to-last through those numbers finished second and fourth.
Don't forget, in the Florida Derby, Ice Box benefited from similar fractions (23 1/5, 46 2/5 and 1:10 3/5) and rallied from last to defeat Pleasant Prince by a nose.
Has Ice Box suddenly emerged as a major player or was he the beneficiary of fast early fractions in both races? At 10-1 or higher, he'd be a worthy play in the Belmont Stakes; as the favorite, it's best to side with others.
Jockey J. R. Velazquez takes over the mount from Jose Lezcano on Fly Down, the other horse in the race trained by Nick Zito. Velazquez rode Fly Down in his debut last October at Belmont Park and the pair finished third in a troubled trip.
Since that loss, Fly Down has won three of four appearances, including a pair of victories over First Dude. His only off-the-board finish came in the Louisiana Derby, a race he finished in the ninth spot, beaten 6 3/4-lengths.
His last effort was his best. Going off at 7-2, Fly Down came through with a dominating six-length win over Drosselmeyer in the Dwyer Stakes and should on top of his game once again this Saturday.
OTHER POSSIBILITIES
Make Music for Me shocked a lot of people with his fourth-place finish at 30-1 in the Kentucky Derby, but he's well rested after sitting out the Preakness.
Like Ice Box, Make Music for Me benefited from a very fast pace in the Run for the Roses and there are those experts who feel he will bounce from such an effort. Still, the horse is talented enough to have picked up a check in seven of nine career starts, including three in-the-money finishes to Lookin At Lucky.
It's doubtful he'll be able to win the Belmont since he's only won one race, a non-graded stakes race on the turf, but do not toss him from trifecta or superfecta wagering.
Interactif, trained by Todd Pletcher, completes the field of a dozen three- year-olds. The bay colt hasn't raced since a lackluster fourth-place finish as the 3-1 favorite in the Blue Grass, but he's been training well enough for a chance to give Pletcher his second Belmont Stakes victory in the last four years.
The son of Broken Vow never took to the Polytrack surface at Keeneland after a solid second to Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe at Santa Anita, and Pletcher was all set to run him back on the turf. However, the colt's last two works (1:14 1/5 and 1:00 2/5) convinced him to try one more dirt race.
Interactif broke his maiden on conventional dirt last July at Monmouth Park then ran eighth in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. His four turf starts include two victories, a second, and a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.
Unfortunately, he was saddled with post 12, which could have him farther back at the start than expected. Still, look for Interactif to make a run at the leaders around the far turn with a decent chance to stick around for third or fourth at the finish line.
Selections: 1) Game On Dude; 2) Fly Down; 3) Ice Box. The top longshot play is Interactif.
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NFL Football Betting
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds
With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.
Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season. Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money.
This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy. A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:
| Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma) Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State) Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia) Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) Chris Leak (QB, Florida) Mike Hart (RB, Michigan) Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State) Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame) Drew Tate (QB, Iowa) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal) Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn) Chad Henne (QB, Michigan) Kyle Wright (QB, Miami) Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State) Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama) JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU) Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State) Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina) Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech) |
5-2 7-2 7-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 18-1 18-1 20-1 30-1 35-1 35-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 |
For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.